2026 General Election · 50 races · Rating = 60 vote · 25 reg · 15 money
Blue seats go with the Coalition, which includes some Republicans. Red seats go with the Republicans, and gray seats are undecided. A majority is 21 seats in the House and 11 in the Senate.
Click a candidate to pick the winner, or use C, R or ? on a card. A preset overrides your picks until you click it off. Clear or a page refresh starts over.
Each race gets a closeness score from 0 to 100, built from four parts:
| Part | Weight | Measures how close |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 primary | 15% | the top two finished1 |
| Past results | 45% | the 2024 presidential and last legislative races were2 |
| Registration | 25% | the Republican and Democratic registration is3 |
| Money | 15% | the top two are in cash on hand4 |
Past results weigh the presidential and legislative races 35/65 when an incumbent is running and 60/40 in open seats, unless the legislative race was closer, in which case it counts alone. If the last legislative race wasn’t contested, the presidential vote counts alone.
Open seats get 8 extra points. A score of 84 or more is a Toss-up, 72 or more is Lean, 54 or more is Likely, and anything lower is Safe. The letter after the rating is the party of whoever led the Aug 18 primary.
The boxed number next to each candidate is their modeled chance to win on Nov 3. The model replays the ranked-choice count 4,000 times, starting from the Aug 18 primary. Votes for candidates who didn’t advance, and for anyone eliminated, move to the others at the rates Alaska voters showed on 2024 ranked-choice ballots.5 Each run adds random movement between the primary and November, so a close primary gives a close chance. Cash on hand and district lean aren’t in it.
Most Alaskans, about 63%, aren’t registered with either party. In 2024 a district needed about 11 registered Republicans for every 10 Democrats to vote evenly for president, so a district at 13 to 10 is still a toss-up.
| Republicans per Democrat | 2024 presidential vote | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| under 0.6 | D+20 or more | Safe D |
| 0.6 – 0.9 | D+6 to D+20 | Lean / Likely D |
| 0.9 – 1.35 | D+6 to R+6 | Toss-up |
| 1.35 – 1.6 | R+6 to R+12 | Lean R |
| 1.6 – 2.0 | R+12 to R+20 | Likely R |
| over 2.0 | R+20 or more | Safe R |
The top four finishers in the Aug 18 primary6 advance to the Nov 3 ranked-choice general. Where one dropped out, the next finisher took the spot (HD23 and HD37).
For House seats that went to ranked-choice rounds in 2024,7 the district page shows each round and where eliminated candidates’ votes went. It shows how the seat behaved, not how it will vote this year.
Crossover is how much closer the legislative race was than the presidential vote. HD18 voted R+17 for president and R+0.6 for House, a crossover of 16. A high number means voters split their tickets and can be persuaded. A number near zero means the race comes down to turnout.
When every candidate is from the same party, the real contest happens inside that party, and a rating built on Republican-versus-Democrat numbers can’t see it. These races are flagged, so a Safe R there doesn’t mean a quiet race.